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**Generation III Glitch Discussion / Re: Analyzing the chance of Wally fainting the Ralts in Generation III**

« **on:**June 13, 2016, 07:41:04 pm »

The 182/800 figure is the probability of Zigzagoon having 11 or 12 Attack. It’s based on the same figures you came up with, but the correct calculation for the probability of Zigzagoon having an Attack-enhancing nature

The next three figures are the probabilities of Ralts having a Defense-reducing nature, 0–3 HP IVs, and 0–5 Defense IVs. But by my calculations, Ralts can actually have up to 9 Defense IVs and still end up with a Defense stat of 6, so the probability of Ralts being vulnerable to a two-hit KO should be 4/25 × 4/32 × 10/32 = 1/160.

The last two figures are apparently meant to be the probability that the 85%–100% random damage multiplier will be high enough to deal 10 damage on the first attack and 7 on the second. Assuming that Pokémon Showdown’s damage calculator is accurate (is it?), those figures are also wrong: if the damage roll is anything less than 100%, the damage will be rounded down and Zigzagoon will be unable to KO Ralts. The probability of a 100% roll is 1/16, so the probability of two in a row is (1/16)

The probability of all these things happening at once would thus be 182/800 × 1/160 × 1/256 = 182/32768000, or about 1 in 180 044.

*and*12–31 IVs,*or*an Attack-neutral nature*and*26–31 IVs, is (4/25 × 20/32) + (17/25 × 6/32) = 182/800.The next three figures are the probabilities of Ralts having a Defense-reducing nature, 0–3 HP IVs, and 0–5 Defense IVs. But by my calculations, Ralts can actually have up to 9 Defense IVs and still end up with a Defense stat of 6, so the probability of Ralts being vulnerable to a two-hit KO should be 4/25 × 4/32 × 10/32 = 1/160.

The last two figures are apparently meant to be the probability that the 85%–100% random damage multiplier will be high enough to deal 10 damage on the first attack and 7 on the second. Assuming that Pokémon Showdown’s damage calculator is accurate (is it?), those figures are also wrong: if the damage roll is anything less than 100%, the damage will be rounded down and Zigzagoon will be unable to KO Ralts. The probability of a 100% roll is 1/16, so the probability of two in a row is (1/16)

^{2}= 1/256.The probability of all these things happening at once would thus be 182/800 × 1/160 × 1/256 = 182/32768000, or about 1 in 180 044.